Musings of a Compulsive Thinker

The technological singularity: future or fantasy?

Over the weekend, I read this fascinating series of articles in the June 2008 issue of IEEE Spectrum, addressing the concept of the "technological singularity" which some say will happen by the year 2030. Spectrum executive editor Glenn Zorpette describes it thus:

"The singularity is supposed to begin shortly after engineers build the first computer with greater-than-human intelligence. That achievement will trigger a series of cycles in which superintelligent machines beget even smarter machine progeny, going from generation to generation in weeks or days rather than decades or years. The availability of all that cheap, mass-­produced brilliance will spark explosive economic growth, an unending, hypersonic, tech­no­industrial rampage that by comparison will make the Industrial Revolution look like a bingo game." (Full article >>)

Some believe that this singularity will lead, in short order, to a kind of technological rapture. One of the skeptics, science journalist John Horgan, describes this view flippantly, but not inaccurately:

"Like paradise, technological singularity comes in many versions, but most involve bionic brain boosting. At first, we'll become cyborgs, as stupendously powerful brain chips soup up our perception, memory, and intelligence and maybe even eliminate the need for annoying TV remotes. Eventually, we will abandon our flesh-and-blood selves entirely and upload our digitized psyches into computers. We will then dwell happily forever in cyberspace where, to paraphrase Woody Allen, we'll never need to look for a parking space... Notably, singularity enthusiasts tend to be computer specialists, such as the author and retired computer scientist Vernor Vinge... and the entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil. Intoxicated by the explosive progress of information technologies captured by Moore's Law, such singularitarians foresee a 'merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence,' as Kurzweil puts it, that will culminate in 'immortal software-based humans.' It will happen not within a millennium, or a century, but no later than 2030, according to Vinge... Kurzweil says he has adopted an antiaging regimen so that he'll 'live long enough to live forever.'" (Full article >>)

Researcher John Casti, however, foresees the singularity going in the opposite direction:

"I think it's scientifically and philosophically on sound footing. The only real issue for me is the time frame over which the singularity will unfold. [The singularity represents] the end of the supremacy of Homo sapiens as the dominant species on planet Earth. At that point a new species appears, and humans and machines will go their separate ways, not merge one with the other. I do not believe this necessarily implies a malevolent machine takeover; rather, machines will become increasingly uninterested in human affairs just as we are uninterested in the affairs of ants or bees. But it's more likely than not in my view that the two species will comfortably and more or less peacefully coexist -- unless human interests start to interfere with those of the machines." (Full article >>)

Here, then, is a view of a different kind of singularity (which is, in my opinion, a more plausible one), as proposed by MIT robotics professor Rodney Brooks:

"My own view is that things will unfold very differently... an artificial intelligence could evolve in a much different way. In particular, I don't think there is going to be one single sudden technological 'big bang' that springs [a human-level artificial intelligence, or AI] into 'life.' Starting with the mildly intelligent systems we have today, machines will become gradually more intelligent, generation by generation. The singularity will be a period, not an event.

"This period will encompass a time when we will invent, perfect, and deploy, in fits and starts, ever more capable systems, driven not by the imperative of the singularity itself but by the usual economic and sociological forces. Eventually, we will create truly artificial intelligences, with cognition and consciousness recognizably similar to our own. I have no idea how, exactly, this creation will come about. I also don't know when it will happen, although I strongly suspect it won't happen before 2030, the year that some singularitarians predict.

"But I expect the [AIs] of the future -- embodied, for example, as robots that will roam our homes and workplaces -- to emerge gradually and symbiotically with our society. At the same time, we humans will transform ourselves. We will incorporate a wide range of advanced sensory devices and prosthetics to enhance our bodies. As our machines become more like us, we will become more like them." (Full article >>)

The questions are many; the speculation runs rampant. Will machines ever be as smart as humans? Will they ever achieve "consciousness"? Will they be our helpers, our caretakers, our overseers? Eventually, time will tell -- assuming that the human race doesn't first undergo some kind of cataclysmic event (e.g., an Andromeda strain, a nuclear holocaust, extraterrestrial enslavement, the Biblical end of days, etc.).

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Labels: engineering, my future, philosophy, ponderings, science

posted by the alygator @ 11:24 AM